Decision brief · what the records say, not our assessment
Vaccine Therapy Followed by Biological Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage III or Stage IV Melanoma
NCT00006113 · University of Southern California · PHASE2 · terminated · Open Targets disease: cutaneous melanoma · Why it stopped
Six questions a reader deciding whether to spend more time on this asks, each answered with flags: yes, no, or not published (hatched), each with its rule and source record. Flags are never added up into a score or a verdict, because published success rates disagree by a factor of two and more.
1. Is the biology right?
- Somatic driver evidence: no · None of IL2RA, IL2RG, IL2RB, CD40 has somatic-mutation evidence in cutaneous melanomaRule: Open Targets has somatic-mutation evidence for the target in this cancer. Source: Open Targets: IL2RA in cutaneous melanoma, 2026-11-11
- Human genetic evidence: yes · IL2RA: germlineRule: Any germline or somatic human genetic evidence for the target in this cancer, counted apart from animal-model and literature evidence. Source: Open Targets: IL2RA in cutaneous melanoma, 2026-11-11Published context: 2.6× relative probability of success, phase 1 to launch, with human genetic support (Minikel et al., Nature 2024, drug programs to 2023). All therapy areas, mostly germline evidence; not a probability for this program.
- Pediatric target: yes · CD40 on the FDA listRule: Target is on FDA's Pediatric Molecular Target List (relevant targets); membership alone neither requires nor waives a study. Source: FDA Pediatric Molecular Target List (Listed as February 2026 on the FDA Pediatric Oncology page; the file served is 9.7.22_the_relevant_molecular_target_list.xlsx, whose Summary of Changes sheet is headed 'SEPTEMBER 2022 UPDATE' (footnote date 2022-09-01)), 2026-11-11
- Haematologic cancer: no · Solid tumourRule: From the indication, or the registry conditions when no indication matches. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00006113, 2026-11-11Published context: Likelihood of approval from phase 1: 7.5% haematologic vs 4.6% solid (BIO / Informa / QLS 2021, 2011–2020). Population-level, not a prediction.
- IL2RA (via aldesleukin): Evidence types in cutaneous melanoma: literature, genetic_association, clinical; literature listed separately from human genetics. Datasources: gwas_credible_sets, clinical_precedence, europepmc. · Open Targets: IL2RA in cutaneous melanoma
- IL2RG (via aldesleukin): Evidence types in cutaneous melanoma: clinical. Datasources: clinical_precedence. · Open Targets: IL2RG in cutaneous melanoma
- IL2RB (via aldesleukin): Evidence types in cutaneous melanoma: clinical. Datasources: clinical_precedence. · Open Targets: IL2RB in cutaneous melanoma
- CD40 (via recombinant CD40-ligand): Open Targets has no association between CD40 and cutaneous melanoma. · Open Targets: CD40 in cutaneous melanoma
- Not loaded on this app yet: Normal-tissue expression in vital organs. Source: Human Protein Atlas (ticket 36).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Pan-essential in cell lines. Source: DepMap (ticket 36).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Approved drug on this target. Source: Drugs@FDA (ticket 30).
2. Can the result be trusted?
- Randomised: not published · The record gives no allocation.Rule: Registry allocation field. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00006113, 2026-11-11
- Small denominator: yes · 25 enrolled; each patient moves a rate by 100 ÷ 25 = 4.0 pointsRule: Enrolment under 30; the arithmetic is shown, not a benchmark. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00006113, 2026-11-11
- Primary endpoint is overall survival: not published · The record lists no primary outcome.Rule: A registered primary outcome measure names overall survival. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00006113, 2026-11-11
- Results overdue: yes · Primary completion 2003-05, 282 months ago; no results postedRule: Primary completion (actual) more than 12 months ago and no results posted to the registry. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00006113, 2026-11-11Published context: 40.9% of applicable trials report results within a year (Results-reporting studies summarised in spec §11, all therapy areas). All areas, not oncology only.
- Not loaded on this app yet: Treated and evaluable counts, assessor, confirmed response, follow-up and data cutoff. Source: Readout extraction (ticket 32).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Primary endpoint changed between registry versions. Source: Registry versions in the store (ticket 32).
3. What must it beat?
- Not loaded on this app yet: Control-arm result and approved therapies for the same segment, with label links. Source: Drugs@FDA, FDA labels and readouts (tickets 30, 32).
4. Too crowded, or too late?
- Stopped on this target: 170 terminated, withdrawn or suspended trials of drugs against IL2RA; 28 give no reason. Reasons are quoted as the registry gives them on the target page. · IL2RA: what already stopped
- Not loaded on this app yet: Programs on the target by phase and months behind the leader. Source: Programs and Drugs@FDA (ticket 33).
5. Can it be approved, and stay approved?
- Single-country: yes · The only site is in United StatesRule: All listed sites are in one country; the share of US sites is shown. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00006113, 2026-11-11
- EU paediatric investigation plan: yes · EMEA-001556-PIP02-24 (aldesleukin, Treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis): W: decision granting a waiver in all age groups for all conditions or indications, 13 Sept 2024Rule: An EMA PIP decision (agreement, modification or waiver) lists the drug as its active substance, exact name. Source: EMA EMEA-001556-PIP02-24, 2026-11-11
- EU orphan designation: yes · EU/3/22/2578 positive 24 Feb 2022: Treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; EU/3/03/146 withdrawn 30 Jun 2003: Treatment of renal-cell carcinomaRule: An EU orphan designation lists the drug as its active substance (exact name) or belongs to a medicine that does; withdrawn and expired designations are listed with their status. Source: EMA data download (dated snapshot), 2026-11-11
- Authorised in the EU: no · EMA lists no centrally authorised medicine of MART-1 antigen, aldesleukin, gp100 antigen, recombinant CD40-ligandRule: An EMA medicine record lists the drug as its active substance or INN, exact name; national-only authorisations are not in this file. Source: EMA data download (dated snapshot), 2026-11-11
- FDA orphan designation: not published · FDA's orphan designation database turns away automated requests, so this app does not read it; search it by hand at the linkRule: Would be: an FDA orphan designation names the drug. Source: FDA orphan designations search
- FDA pediatric oncology approval: no · FDA's table lists no pediatric approval of MART-1 antigen, aldesleukin, gp100 antigen, recombinant CD40-ligandRule: FDA's Pediatric Oncology Drug Approvals table names the drug. Source: FDA Pediatric Oncology Drug Approvals (content current as of 2026-03-03), 2026-11-11
- Registered studies open to children: yes · 135 interventional studies of MART-1 antigen, aldesleukin, gp100 antigen, recombinant CD40-ligand include patients under 18; 9 are recruiting, not yet recruiting or activeRule: The registry's age group includes Child (birth to 17 years), which also counts studies that set no minimum age. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov search, 2026-11-11
- Caveat: Site counts are not patients per country, and trials registered only outside ClinicalTrials.gov are not covered. Where the sites are is a fact about the record, not a judgement of its quality.
- Rare pediatric disease voucher: FDA, content current as of 29 Apr 2026: “As of February 3, 2026, enactment of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026, the rare pediatric disease PRV program will sunset after September 30, 2029. FDA may not award any PRVs under this program after September 30, 2029.” Voucher sale prices are not shown here; they appear only as company-reported news. · FDA: Rare Pediatric Disease Designation and Priority Review Voucher Programs
- Not loaded on this app yet: Precedent approvals for target, modality and endpoint; accelerated-approval status. Source: Drugs@FDA and FDA accelerated-approval tables (ticket 30).
6. Can the sponsor finish?
- Sponsor: University of Southern California (academic or other) · ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00006113
- study chair: Jeffrey S. Weber, MD, PhD, University of Southern California · Person page
- Not loaded on this app yet: Filed cash, quarterly spend and the runway arithmetic. Source: SEC XBRL company facts (ticket 37).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Sponsor's completed vs stopped oncology trials and results-reporting record. Source: Registry, by company (ticket 37).
What public data cannot tell you
Public records cannot show: sales forecasts; a probability of success for this asset; full deal terms and net prices; FDA designations and action dates before approval (shown only as company-reported); clinical holds unless the company disclosed them; manufacturing; patents on unapproved drugs; whether preclinical findings have been replicated.
Sources: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00006113 (2026-11-11); Open Targets Platform (2026-11-11); FDA Pediatric Molecular Target List (Listed as February 2026 on the FDA Pediatric Oncology page; the file served is 9.7.22_the_relevant_molecular_target_list.xlsx, whose Summary of Changes sheet is headed 'SEPTEMBER 2022 UPDATE' (footnote date 2022-09-01)) (2026-11-11). JSON: /api/brief/trial/NCT00006113. Not medical advice.