Decision brief · what the records say, not our assessment
Testing the Use of A Single Drug (Olaparib) or the Combination of Two Drugs (Cediranib and Olaparib) Compared to the Usual Chemotherapy for Women With Platinum Sensitive Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, or Primary Peritoneal Cancer
NCT02446600 · National Cancer Institute (NCI) · PHASE3 · active not recruiting · Open Targets disease: fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma
Six questions a reader deciding whether to spend more time on this asks, each answered with flags: yes, no, or not published (hatched), each with its rule and source record. Flags are never added up into a score or a verdict, because published success rates disagree by a factor of two and more.
1. Is the biology right?
- Somatic driver evidence: no · None of RRM1, RRM2B, RRM2, PARP1, PARP3, PARP2, TOP2A has somatic-mutation evidence in fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinomaRule: Open Targets has somatic-mutation evidence for the target in this cancer. Source: Open Targets: RRM1 in fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma, 2026-11-11
- Human genetic evidence: no · No germline or somatic evidence for RRM1, RRM2B, RRM2, PARP1, PARP3, PARP2, TOP2A in fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinomaRule: Any germline or somatic human genetic evidence for the target in this cancer, counted apart from animal-model and literature evidence. Source: Open Targets: RRM1 in fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma, 2026-11-11
- Pediatric target: no · Not on the FDA listRule: Target is on FDA's Pediatric Molecular Target List (relevant targets); membership alone neither requires nor waives a study. Source: FDA Pediatric Molecular Target List (Listed as February 2026 on the FDA Pediatric Oncology page; the file served is 9.7.22_the_relevant_molecular_target_list.xlsx, whose Summary of Changes sheet is headed 'SEPTEMBER 2022 UPDATE' (footnote date 2022-09-01)), 2026-11-11
- Haematologic cancer: no · Solid tumourRule: From the indication, or the registry conditions when no indication matches. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02446600, 2026-11-11Published context: Likelihood of approval from phase 1: 7.5% haematologic vs 4.6% solid (BIO / Informa / QLS 2021, 2011–2020). Population-level, not a prediction.
- RRM1 (via Gemcitabine Hydrochloride): Open Targets has no association between RRM1 and fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma. · Open Targets: RRM1 in fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma
- RRM2B (via Gemcitabine Hydrochloride): Open Targets has no association between RRM2B and fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma. · Open Targets: RRM2B in fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma
- RRM2 (via Gemcitabine Hydrochloride): Open Targets has no association between RRM2 and fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma. · Open Targets: RRM2 in fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma
- PARP1 (via Olaparib): Open Targets has no association between PARP1 and fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma. · Open Targets: PARP1 in fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma
- PARP3 (via Olaparib): Open Targets has no association between PARP3 and fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma. · Open Targets: PARP3 in fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma
- PARP2 (via Olaparib): Open Targets has no association between PARP2 and fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma. · Open Targets: PARP2 in fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma
- TOP2A (via Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin Hydrochloride): Open Targets has no association between TOP2A and fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma. · Open Targets: TOP2A in fallopian tube clear cell adenocarcinoma
- Not loaded on this app yet: Normal-tissue expression in vital organs. Source: Human Protein Atlas (ticket 36).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Pan-essential in cell lines. Source: DepMap (ticket 36).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Approved drug on this target. Source: Drugs@FDA (ticket 30).
2. Can the result be trusted?
- Randomised: yes · Randomised allocationRule: Registry allocation field. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02446600, 2026-11-11
- Small denominator: no · 579 enrolled; each patient moves a rate by 100 ÷ 579 = 0.2 pointsRule: Enrolment under 30; the arithmetic is shown, not a benchmark. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02446600, 2026-11-11
- Primary endpoint is overall survival: no · Progression Free Survival Determined Using Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors Version 1.1 CriteriaRule: A registered primary outcome measure names overall survival. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02446600, 2026-11-11Published context: Non-OS primary endpoint: odds ratio 2.79 for a positive phase 3 (Otsuka 2021, 400 phase 3 oncology trials, to 2020). Shown with the next figure: a surrogate is easier to hit, and often a weak guide to survival.Published context: 52% of surrogate-to-OS correlations are low (Prasad 2015, published to 2014). Shown with the figure above.
- Results overdue: no · Results posted 2021-03-12Rule: Primary completion (actual) more than 12 months ago and no results posted to the registry. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02446600, 2026-11-11
- Not loaded on this app yet: Treated and evaluable counts, assessor, confirmed response, follow-up and data cutoff. Source: Readout extraction (ticket 32).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Primary endpoint changed between registry versions. Source: Registry versions in the store (ticket 32).
3. What must it beat?
- Not loaded on this app yet: Control-arm result and approved therapies for the same segment, with label links. Source: Drugs@FDA, FDA labels and readouts (tickets 30, 32).
4. Too crowded, or too late?
- Stopped on this target: 1131 terminated, withdrawn or suspended trials of drugs against RRM1; 6 of the 200 most recent give no reason. Reasons are quoted as the registry gives them on the target page. · RRM1: what already stopped
- Not loaded on this app yet: Programs on the target by phase and months behind the leader. Source: Programs and Drugs@FDA (ticket 33).
5. Can it be approved, and stay approved?
- Single-country: no · 356 sites in 4 countries; 337 in the United States (95%)Rule: All listed sites are in one country; the share of US sites is shown. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02446600, 2026-11-11
- EU paediatric investigation plan: yes · EMA/PE/0000230592 (gemcitabine hydrochloride, condition not given): W: decision granting a waiver in all age groups for all conditions or indications, 14 Apr 2025; EMEA-002269-PIP01-17-M03 (olaparib, Treatment of all conditions included in the category of malignant neoplasms (except central nervous system tumours, haematopoietic and lymphoid tissue neoplasms)): PM: decision on the application for modification of an agreed PIP, 6 May 2024; EMEA-003007-PIP01-21 (gemcitabine hydrochloride, Treatment of urothelial carcinoma): W: decision granting a waiver in all age groups for all conditions or indications, 13 Aug 2021; EMEA-000477-PIP01-08 (cediranib maleate, Treatment of high-grade glioma): P: decision agreeing on a investigation plan, with or without partial waiver(s) and or deferral(s), 1 Jun 2010Rule: An EMA PIP decision (agreement, modification or waiver) lists the drug as its active substance, exact name. Source: EMA data download (dated snapshot), 2026-11-11
- EU orphan designation: yes · EU/3/07/501 withdrawn 6 Dec 2007: Treatment of ovarian cancer; EU/3/14/1303 positive 29 Jul 2014: Treatment of ovarian cancerRule: An EU orphan designation lists the drug as its active substance (exact name) or belongs to a medicine that does; withdrawn and expired designations are listed with their status. Source: EMA data download (dated snapshot), 2026-11-11
- Authorised in the EU: yes · Lynparza: authorised since 16 Dec 2014; Zemfirza: application withdrawnRule: An EMA medicine record lists the drug as its active substance or INN, exact name; national-only authorisations are not in this file. Source: EMA data download (dated snapshot), 2026-11-11
- FDA orphan designation: not published · FDA's orphan designation database turns away automated requests, so this app does not read it; search it by hand at the linkRule: Would be: an FDA orphan designation names the drug. Source: FDA orphan designations search
- FDA pediatric oncology approval: no · FDA's table lists no pediatric approval of Cediranib Maleate, Gemcitabine Hydrochloride, Olaparib, Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin HydrochlorideRule: FDA's Pediatric Oncology Drug Approvals table names the drug. Source: FDA Pediatric Oncology Drug Approvals (content current as of 2026-03-03), 2026-11-11
- Registered studies open to children: yes · 221 interventional studies of Cediranib Maleate, Gemcitabine Hydrochloride, Olaparib, Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin Hydrochloride include patients under 18; 47 are recruiting, not yet recruiting or activeRule: The registry's age group includes Child (birth to 17 years), which also counts studies that set no minimum age. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov search, 2026-11-11
- Caveat: Site counts are not patients per country, and trials registered only outside ClinicalTrials.gov are not covered. Where the sites are is a fact about the record, not a judgement of its quality.
- Rare pediatric disease voucher: FDA, content current as of 29 Apr 2026: “As of February 3, 2026, enactment of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026, the rare pediatric disease PRV program will sunset after September 30, 2029. FDA may not award any PRVs under this program after September 30, 2029.” Voucher sale prices are not shown here; they appear only as company-reported news. · FDA: Rare Pediatric Disease Designation and Priority Review Voucher Programs
- Not loaded on this app yet: Precedent approvals for target, modality and endpoint; accelerated-approval status. Source: Drugs@FDA and FDA accelerated-approval tables (ticket 30).
6. Can the sponsor finish?
- Sponsor: National Cancer Institute (NCI) (academic or other) · ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02446600
- principal investigator: Joyce F Liu, NRG Oncology · Person page
- Not loaded on this app yet: Filed cash, quarterly spend and the runway arithmetic. Source: SEC XBRL company facts (ticket 37).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Sponsor's completed vs stopped oncology trials and results-reporting record. Source: Registry, by company (ticket 37).
What public data cannot tell you
Public records cannot show: sales forecasts; a probability of success for this asset; full deal terms and net prices; FDA designations and action dates before approval (shown only as company-reported); clinical holds unless the company disclosed them; manufacturing; patents on unapproved drugs; whether preclinical findings have been replicated.
Sources: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02446600 (2026-11-11); Open Targets Platform (2026-11-11); FDA Pediatric Molecular Target List (Listed as February 2026 on the FDA Pediatric Oncology page; the file served is 9.7.22_the_relevant_molecular_target_list.xlsx, whose Summary of Changes sheet is headed 'SEPTEMBER 2022 UPDATE' (footnote date 2022-09-01)) (2026-11-11). JSON: /api/brief/trial/NCT02446600. Not medical advice.