Decision brief · what the records say, not our assessment
Effectiveness of Alternative Therapies in Maintaining Weight Loss Achieved by GLP-1 Medications Post-Cessation
NCT07092618 · AgelessRx · PHASE2/PHASE3 · recruiting · Open Targets disease: life span determination trait
Six questions a reader deciding whether to spend more time on this asks, each answered with flags: yes, no, or not published (hatched), each with its rule and source record. Flags are never added up into a score or a verdict, because published success rates disagree by a factor of two and more.
1. Is the biology right?
- Somatic driver evidence: no · None of MT-ND6, NDUFA10, NDUFS8, FKBP1A, OPRK1, OPRD1, OPRM1 has somatic-mutation evidence in life span determination traitRule: Open Targets has somatic-mutation evidence for the target in this cancer. Source: Open Targets: MT-ND6 in life span determination trait, 2026-11-11
- Human genetic evidence: no · No germline or somatic evidence for MT-ND6, NDUFA10, NDUFS8, FKBP1A, OPRK1, OPRD1, OPRM1 in life span determination traitRule: Any germline or somatic human genetic evidence for the target in this cancer, counted apart from animal-model and literature evidence. Source: Open Targets: MT-ND6 in life span determination trait, 2026-11-11
- Pediatric target: no · Not on the FDA listRule: Target is on FDA's Pediatric Molecular Target List (relevant targets); membership alone neither requires nor waives a study. Source: FDA Pediatric Molecular Target List (Listed as February 2026 on the FDA Pediatric Oncology page; the file served is 9.7.22_the_relevant_molecular_target_list.xlsx, whose Summary of Changes sheet is headed 'SEPTEMBER 2022 UPDATE' (footnote date 2022-09-01)), 2026-11-11
- Haematologic cancer: no · Solid tumourRule: From the indication, or the registry conditions when no indication matches. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07092618, 2026-11-11Published context: Likelihood of approval from phase 1: 7.5% haematologic vs 4.6% solid (BIO / Informa / QLS 2021, 2011–2020). Population-level, not a prediction.
- MT-ND6 (via Metformin): Open Targets has no association between MT-ND6 and life span determination trait. · Open Targets: MT-ND6 in life span determination trait
- NDUFA10 (via Metformin): Open Targets has no association between NDUFA10 and life span determination trait. · Open Targets: NDUFA10 in life span determination trait
- NDUFS8 (via Metformin): Open Targets has no association between NDUFS8 and life span determination trait. · Open Targets: NDUFS8 in life span determination trait
- FKBP1A (via Rapamycin): Open Targets has no association between FKBP1A and life span determination trait. · Open Targets: FKBP1A in life span determination trait
- OPRK1 (via Naltrexone): Open Targets has no association between OPRK1 and life span determination trait. · Open Targets: OPRK1 in life span determination trait
- OPRD1 (via Naltrexone): Open Targets has no association between OPRD1 and life span determination trait. · Open Targets: OPRD1 in life span determination trait
- OPRM1 (via Naltrexone): Open Targets has no association between OPRM1 and life span determination trait. · Open Targets: OPRM1 in life span determination trait
- Not loaded on this app yet: Normal-tissue expression in vital organs. Source: Human Protein Atlas (ticket 36).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Pan-essential in cell lines. Source: DepMap (ticket 36).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Approved drug on this target. Source: Drugs@FDA (ticket 30).
2. Can the result be trusted?
- Randomised: yes · Randomised allocationRule: Registry allocation field. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07092618, 2026-11-11
- Small denominator: no · 150 planned; each patient moves a rate by 100 ÷ 150 = 0.7 pointsRule: Enrolment under 30; the arithmetic is shown, not a benchmark. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07092618, 2026-11-11
- Primary endpoint is overall survival: no · Evaluate the effectiveness of metformin in maintaining GLP1-induced weight loss in participants weaning off of Ozempi…; Evaluate the effectiveness of metformin + rapamycin in maintaining GLP1-induced weight loss in participants weaning o…; Evaluate the effectiveness of metformin + LDN in maintaining GLP1-induced weight loss in participants weaning off of …Rule: A registered primary outcome measure names overall survival. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07092618, 2026-11-11Published context: Non-OS primary endpoint: odds ratio 2.79 for a positive phase 3 (Otsuka 2021, 400 phase 3 oncology trials, to 2020). Shown with the next figure: a surrogate is easier to hit, and often a weak guide to survival.Published context: 52% of surrogate-to-OS correlations are low (Prasad 2015, published to 2014). Shown with the figure above.
- Results overdue: no · Primary completion expected 2025-08; not yet dueRule: Primary completion (actual) more than 12 months ago and no results posted to the registry. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07092618, 2026-11-11
- Not loaded on this app yet: Treated and evaluable counts, assessor, confirmed response, follow-up and data cutoff. Source: Readout extraction (ticket 32).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Primary endpoint changed between registry versions. Source: Registry versions in the store (ticket 32).
3. What must it beat?
- Not loaded on this app yet: Control-arm result and approved therapies for the same segment, with label links. Source: Drugs@FDA, FDA labels and readouts (tickets 30, 32).
4. Too crowded, or too late?
- Stopped on this target: 2 terminated, withdrawn or suspended trials of drugs against MT-ND6. Reasons are quoted as the registry gives them on the target page. · MT-ND6: what already stopped
- Not loaded on this app yet: Programs on the target by phase and months behind the leader. Source: Programs and Drugs@FDA (ticket 33).
5. Can it be approved, and stay approved?
- Single-country: yes · The only site is in United StatesRule: All listed sites are in one country; the share of US sites is shown. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07092618, 2026-11-11
- EU paediatric investigation plan: yes · EMEA-001373-PIP01-12-M06 (bupropion hydrochloride;naltrexone hydrochloride, Treatment of obesity): PM: decision on the application for modification of an agreed PIP, 16 Aug 2024; EMEA-001352-PIP01-12-M01 (metformin hydrochloride, Treatment of polycystic ovary syndrome): PM: decision on the application for modification of an agreed PIP, 29 Sept 2014; EMEA-002732-PIP02-20 (sitagliptin (hydrochloride monohydrate);metformin hydrochloride, Treatment of type II diabetes mellitus): W: decision granting a waiver in all age groups for all conditions or indications, 15 Jul 2020; EMEA-002164-PIP01-17-M02 ((RS)-Bacoflen;D-Sorbitol (PXT3003);naltrexone hydrochloride, Treatment of Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease Type 1A): PM: decision on the application for modification of an agreed PIP, 29 Jan 2020; +16 moreRule: An EMA PIP decision (agreement, modification or waiver) lists the drug as its active substance, exact name. Source: EMA data download (dated snapshot), 2026-11-11
- EU orphan designation: yes · EU/3/16/1803 positive 12 Dec 2016: Treatment of progressive myoclonic epilepsy type 2 (Lafora disease); EU/3/14/1260 positive 26 Mar 2014: Treatment of Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease type 1A; - negative 7 Nov 2020: Treatment of fibromyalgia; EU/3/17/1965 positive 17 Jan 2018: Treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy; +1 moreRule: An EU orphan designation lists the drug as its active substance (exact name) or belongs to a medicine that does; withdrawn and expired designations are listed with their status. Source: EMA data download (dated snapshot), 2026-11-11
- Authorised in the EU: yes · Vokanamet: authorised since 23 Apr 2014; Mysimba: authorised since 26 Mar 2015; Synjardy: authorised since 27 May 2015; Sitagliptin / Metformin hydrochloride Mylan: authorised since 16 Feb 2022; +21 moreRule: An EMA medicine record lists the drug as its active substance or INN, exact name; national-only authorisations are not in this file. Source: EMA data download (dated snapshot), 2026-11-11
- FDA orphan designation: not published · FDA's orphan designation database turns away automated requests, so this app does not read it; search it by hand at the linkRule: Would be: an FDA orphan designation names the drug. Source: FDA orphan designations search
- FDA pediatric oncology approval: no · FDA's table lists no pediatric approval of Metformin, Rapamycin, NaltrexoneRule: FDA's Pediatric Oncology Drug Approvals table names the drug. Source: FDA Pediatric Oncology Drug Approvals (content current as of 2026-03-03), 2026-11-11
- Registered studies open to children: yes · 439 interventional studies of Metformin, Rapamycin, Naltrexone include patients under 18; 81 are recruiting, not yet recruiting or activeRule: The registry's age group includes Child (birth to 17 years), which also counts studies that set no minimum age. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov search, 2026-11-11
- Caveat: Site counts are not patients per country, and trials registered only outside ClinicalTrials.gov are not covered. Where the sites are is a fact about the record, not a judgement of its quality.
- Rare pediatric disease voucher: FDA, content current as of 29 Apr 2026: “As of February 3, 2026, enactment of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026, the rare pediatric disease PRV program will sunset after September 30, 2029. FDA may not award any PRVs under this program after September 30, 2029.” Voucher sale prices are not shown here; they appear only as company-reported news. · FDA: Rare Pediatric Disease Designation and Priority Review Voucher Programs
- Not loaded on this app yet: Precedent approvals for target, modality and endpoint; accelerated-approval status. Source: Drugs@FDA and FDA accelerated-approval tables (ticket 30).
6. Can the sponsor finish?
- Sponsor: AgelessRx (industry) · ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07092618
- principal investigator: Stefanie Morgan, PhD, AgelessRx · Person page
- Not loaded on this app yet: Filed cash, quarterly spend and the runway arithmetic. Source: SEC XBRL company facts (ticket 37).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Sponsor's completed vs stopped oncology trials and results-reporting record. Source: Registry, by company (ticket 37).
What public data cannot tell you
Public records cannot show: sales forecasts; a probability of success for this asset; full deal terms and net prices; FDA designations and action dates before approval (shown only as company-reported); clinical holds unless the company disclosed them; manufacturing; patents on unapproved drugs; whether preclinical findings have been replicated.
Sources: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07092618 (2026-11-11); Open Targets Platform (2026-11-11); FDA Pediatric Molecular Target List (Listed as February 2026 on the FDA Pediatric Oncology page; the file served is 9.7.22_the_relevant_molecular_target_list.xlsx, whose Summary of Changes sheet is headed 'SEPTEMBER 2022 UPDATE' (footnote date 2022-09-01)) (2026-11-11). JSON: /api/brief/trial/NCT07092618. Not medical advice.