Decision brief · what the records say, not our assessment
Dinutuximab, Sargramostim, and Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Newly Diagnosed High-Risk Neuroblastoma
NCT03786783 · National Cancer Institute (NCI) · PHASE2 · completed · Neuroblastoma · Open Targets disease: neuroblastoma
Six questions a reader deciding whether to spend more time on this asks, each answered with flags: yes, no, or not published (hatched), each with its rule and source record. Flags are never added up into a score or a verdict, because published success rates disagree by a factor of two and more.
1. Is the biology right?
- Somatic driver evidence: no · None of TOP2A, TOP2B, RARG, RARB, RARA has somatic-mutation evidence in neuroblastomaRule: Open Targets has somatic-mutation evidence for the target in this cancer. Source: Open Targets: TOP2A in neuroblastoma, 2026-11-11
- Human genetic evidence: no · No germline or somatic evidence for TOP2A, TOP2B, RARG, RARB, RARA in neuroblastomaRule: Any germline or somatic human genetic evidence for the target in this cancer, counted apart from animal-model and literature evidence. Source: Open Targets: TOP2A in neuroblastoma, 2026-11-11
- Pediatric target: no · Not on the FDA listRule: Target is on FDA's Pediatric Molecular Target List (relevant targets); membership alone neither requires nor waives a study. Source: FDA Pediatric Molecular Target List (Listed as February 2026 on the FDA Pediatric Oncology page; the file served is 9.7.22_the_relevant_molecular_target_list.xlsx, whose Summary of Changes sheet is headed 'SEPTEMBER 2022 UPDATE' (footnote date 2022-09-01)), 2026-11-11
- Haematologic cancer: no · Solid tumourRule: From the indication, or the registry conditions when no indication matches. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03786783, 2026-11-11Published context: Likelihood of approval from phase 1: 7.5% haematologic vs 4.6% solid (BIO / Informa / QLS 2021, 2011–2020). Population-level, not a prediction.
- Background therapy: Cyclophosphamide, Doxorubicin, Etoposide, Topotecan, Vincristine: standard agents, not counted in these flags.
- TOP2A (via Dexrazoxane): Evidence types in neuroblastoma: literature, clinical; literature listed separately from human genetics. Datasources: clinical_precedence, europepmc. · Open Targets: TOP2A in neuroblastoma
- TOP2B (via Dexrazoxane): Evidence types in neuroblastoma: literature, clinical; literature listed separately from human genetics. Datasources: clinical_precedence, europepmc. · Open Targets: TOP2B in neuroblastoma
- RARG (via Isotretinoin): Evidence types in neuroblastoma: literature, clinical; literature listed separately from human genetics. Datasources: clinical_precedence, europepmc. · Open Targets: RARG in neuroblastoma
- RARB (via Isotretinoin): Evidence types in neuroblastoma: literature, clinical; literature listed separately from human genetics. Datasources: clinical_precedence, europepmc. · Open Targets: RARB in neuroblastoma
- RARA (via Isotretinoin): Evidence types in neuroblastoma: literature, clinical; literature listed separately from human genetics. Datasources: clinical_precedence, europepmc. · Open Targets: RARA in neuroblastoma
- Not loaded on this app yet: Normal-tissue expression in vital organs. Source: Human Protein Atlas (ticket 36).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Pan-essential in cell lines. Source: DepMap (ticket 36).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Approved drug on this target. Source: Drugs@FDA (ticket 30).
2. Can the result be trusted?
- Randomised: no · Single groupRule: Registry allocation field. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03786783, 2026-11-11
- Small denominator: no · 42 enrolled; each patient moves a rate by 100 ÷ 42 = 2.4 pointsRule: Enrolment under 30; the arithmetic is shown, not a benchmark. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03786783, 2026-11-11
- Primary endpoint is overall survival: no · Percentage of Participants With Unacceptable Toxicity; Percentage of Participants Who Are Feasibility "Failure"Rule: A registered primary outcome measure names overall survival. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03786783, 2026-11-11Published context: Non-OS primary endpoint: odds ratio 2.79 for a positive phase 3 (Otsuka 2021, 400 phase 3 oncology trials, to 2020). Shown with the next figure: a surrogate is easier to hit, and often a weak guide to survival.Published context: 52% of surrogate-to-OS correlations are low (Prasad 2015, published to 2014). Shown with the figure above.
- Results overdue: no · Results posted 2023-03-14Rule: Primary completion (actual) more than 12 months ago and no results posted to the registry. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03786783, 2026-11-11
- Not loaded on this app yet: Treated and evaluable counts, assessor, confirmed response, follow-up and data cutoff. Source: Readout extraction (ticket 32).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Primary endpoint changed between registry versions. Source: Registry versions in the store (ticket 32).
3. What must it beat?
- Not loaded on this app yet: Control-arm result and approved therapies for the same segment, with label links. Source: Drugs@FDA, FDA labels and readouts (tickets 30, 32).
4. Too crowded, or too late?
- Stopped on this target: 728 terminated, withdrawn or suspended trials of drugs against TOP2A; 3 of the 200 most recent give no reason. Reasons are quoted as the registry gives them on the target page. · TOP2A: what already stopped
- Not loaded on this app yet: Programs on the target by phase and months behind the leader. Source: Programs and Drugs@FDA (ticket 33).
5. Can it be approved, and stay approved?
- Single-country: no · 10 sites in 3 countries; 7 in the United States (70%)Rule: All listed sites are in one country; the share of US sites is shown. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03786783, 2026-11-11
- EU paediatric investigation plan: yes · EMEA-001285-PIP01-12-M02 (dinutuximab, Treatment of neuroblastoma): PM: decision on the application for modification of an agreed PIP, 12 Aug 2016; compliance positive 16 Dec 2016Rule: An EMA PIP decision (agreement, modification or waiver) lists the drug as its active substance, exact name. Source: EMA EMEA-001285-PIP01-12-M02, 2026-11-11
- EU orphan designation: yes · EU/3/22/2701 withdrawn 11 Oct 2022: Treatment of autosomal recessive congenital ichthyosis; EU/3/23/2760 withdrawn 15 Feb 2023: Treatment of recessive X-linked ichthyosis; EU/3/11/879 withdrawn 21 Jun 2011: Treatment of neuroblastoma; EU/3/01/059 expired 19 Sept 2001: Treatment of anthracycline extravasationsRule: An EU orphan designation lists the drug as its active substance (exact name) or belongs to a medicine that does; withdrawn and expired designations are listed with their status. Source: EMA data download (dated snapshot), 2026-11-11
- Authorised in the EU: yes · Phelinun: authorised since 16 Nov 2020; Savene: authorised since 27 Jul 2006; Unituxin: withdrawn since 14 Aug 2015Rule: An EMA medicine record lists the drug as its active substance or INN, exact name; national-only authorisations are not in this file. Source: EMA data download (dated snapshot), 2026-11-11
- FDA orphan designation: not published · FDA's orphan designation database turns away automated requests, so this app does not read it; search it by hand at the linkRule: Would be: an FDA orphan designation names the drug. Source: FDA orphan designations search
- FDA pediatric oncology approval: yes · Dinutuximab [Unituxin], 10 Mar 2015: In combination with granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), interleukin-2 (IL-2), and 13-cis-retinoic acid (RA), for the treatment of pediatric patients with high-risk neuroblastoma who achieve at least a partial response to prior first-line multiagent, multimodality therapyRule: FDA's Pediatric Oncology Drug Approvals table names the drug. Source: FDA Pediatric Oncology Drug Approvals (content current as of 2026-03-03), 2026-11-11
- Registered studies open to children: yes · 494 interventional studies of Dexrazoxane, Dinutuximab, Isotretinoin, Melphalan include patients under 18; 98 are recruiting, not yet recruiting or activeRule: The registry's age group includes Child (birth to 17 years), which also counts studies that set no minimum age. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov search, 2026-11-11
- Caveat: Site counts are not patients per country, and trials registered only outside ClinicalTrials.gov are not covered. Where the sites are is a fact about the record, not a judgement of its quality.
- Rare pediatric disease voucher: FDA, content current as of 29 Apr 2026: “As of February 3, 2026, enactment of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026, the rare pediatric disease PRV program will sunset after September 30, 2029. FDA may not award any PRVs under this program after September 30, 2029.” Voucher sale prices are not shown here; they appear only as company-reported news. · FDA: Rare Pediatric Disease Designation and Priority Review Voucher Programs
- Not loaded on this app yet: Precedent approvals for target, modality and endpoint; accelerated-approval status. Source: Drugs@FDA and FDA accelerated-approval tables (ticket 30).
6. Can the sponsor finish?
- Sponsor: National Cancer Institute (NCI) (academic or other) · ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03786783
- principal investigator: Sara M Federico, Children's Oncology Group · Person page
- Not loaded on this app yet: Filed cash, quarterly spend and the runway arithmetic. Source: SEC XBRL company facts (ticket 37).
- Not loaded on this app yet: Sponsor's completed vs stopped oncology trials and results-reporting record. Source: Registry, by company (ticket 37).
What public data cannot tell you
Public records cannot show: sales forecasts; a probability of success for this asset; full deal terms and net prices; FDA designations and action dates before approval (shown only as company-reported); clinical holds unless the company disclosed them; manufacturing; patents on unapproved drugs; whether preclinical findings have been replicated.
Sources: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03786783 (2026-11-11); Open Targets Platform (2026-11-11); FDA Pediatric Molecular Target List (Listed as February 2026 on the FDA Pediatric Oncology page; the file served is 9.7.22_the_relevant_molecular_target_list.xlsx, whose Summary of Changes sheet is headed 'SEPTEMBER 2022 UPDATE' (footnote date 2022-09-01)) (2026-11-11). JSON: /api/brief/trial/NCT03786783. Not medical advice.